Democratic polling firm PPP has a now poll out that gives Louisiana Republican Senator David Vitter a 44%-32% lead over Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon. Among Democrats(who are some of the most right wing Democrats in the country) Melancon leads Vitter 53%-19% and Vitter leads Melancon 43%-25% among independents. The poll did not show Obama's approval rating in the state, but they will tommorrow. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
This is going to be a very uphill battle in 2010. Even though Vitter is below 50%, this is a Democratic poll and this is a state where the Republican argument of "checks and balances" is likely to resonate, especially with those undecided voters. Vitter is already trying to link Melancon to Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi and their "tax and spend" policies. With the unemployment rate almost certainly headed higher by November 2010, this race will only get tougher.
Another big problem here is that with Melancon leaving his very conservative House district, we are almost certain to lose it. McCain carried the district 61%-37% and the once strong Democratic bench in the district has slowly, but surely been depleted over the last few years. Another problem is that if healthcare reform fails, Melancon will get a huge amount of the blame, since he has been one of the blue dogs blocking reform. This surely wont help him get the turnout or funding that he needs from liberal Democrats.